A Massive Energy Black Swan

NATO's Desperate Measures And Oil Supply

In my previous article, I described how I see the energy markets as the right place to be for the next 4-5 years, and how I am not planning to overstay my welcome past the 2027-2028 mark.

I also ended by saying how I think there is a massive risk of a new 1970s-style oil shock.

And while BRICS+ or other geopolitical risks could have a similar effect, they are either far in the future (BRICS) or with a very low probability.

This one, however, I think will happen almost automatically if we persist in our current direction.

I give a 70% chance of changing that direction.

Which leaves a 30% chance of critical failure.

Let’s dive in.

Where Is The Ukraine War Going?

Ukrainian Moves

The first step to explain my reasoning is to go back to the Ukraine War.