In my previous article, I described how I see the energy markets as the right place to be for the next 4-5 years, and how I am not planning to overstay my welcome past the 2027-2028 mark.
I also ended by saying how I think there is a massive risk of a new 1970s-style oil shock.
And while BRICS+ or other geopolitical risks could have a similar effect, they are either far in the future (BRICS) or with a very low probability.
This one, however, I think will happen almost automatically if we persist in our current direction.
I give a 70% chance of changing that direction.
Which leaves a 30% chance of critical failure.
Let’s dive in.
Where Is The Ukraine War Going?
Ukrainian Moves
The first step to explain my reasoning is to go back to the Ukraine War.
