A Massive Energy Black Swan
NATO's Desperate Measures And Oil Supply
In my previous article, I described how I see the energy markets as the right place to be for the next 4-5 years, and how I am not planning to overstay my welcome past the 2027-2028 mark.
The Next 10 Years In Oil
Turning Black Tides A sure sign that energy is slowly getting out of the absolutely awful sentiment with investors, I have been recently asked several times about my perspective on the future prospects of shale oil. As a massive part of my portfolio is in oil producers (Petrobras/PBR , soon Ecopetrol/EC and Guyana stocks) and oil drilling (RIG), this is …
I also ended by saying how I think there is a massive risk of a new 1970s-style oil shock.
And while BRICS+ or other geopolitical risks could have a similar effect, they are either far in the future (BRICS) or with a very low probability.
This one, however, I think will happen almost automatically if we persist in our current direction.
I give a 70% chance of changing that direction.
Which leaves a 30% chance of critical failure.
Let’s dive in.
Where Is The Ukraine War Going?
Ukrainian Moves
The first step to explain my reasoning is to go back to the Ukraine War.
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