A Template For An American 21th Century
A Template For An American 21th Century
Keeping America A Super Power Through Peace
The Past Western Domination
A lot of digital ink is being spilled on the 21st-century “multipolarity”. As an overall trend, this is likely unstoppable and a natural state of affair.
The world domination of first the combined European colonial powers (in order Spain, Portugal, Netherland, France, England), and then the Pax Americana + Soviet post-WW2 was based on a few key unique circumstances.
Exceptional technological advantages. At no point in the 19th and early 20th centuries, non-Western nations had a chance to win either an economic or a real war. With maybe the exception of Imperial Japan, which had the tech but not the scale.
The inertia of past successes. Success begets success. The dominance over the “third world” established deeply entrenched advantages like trade dominance, cultural influence, western leaning institutions, languages used, etc…
Scale. Directly or indirectly controlling the majority of raw resources, and something of three quarters of the world’s industry will give unique scale advantages that are hard to match if you are poorer AND smaller.
Military dominance. As shown by the military adventurism of both America and the Soviets, it required the combination of horrendous losses, extremely resilient culture, good terrain, and a decade of attritonal warfare to just survive an invasion by an Western/Soviet power (Vietnam, Afghanistan). Pushing back was out of the question, surviving was hard enough.
Most of these advantages have eroded from the 1960s onward.
Technology is still an advantage against the Middle East, South America or Africa. But it is clear that Asia is for now the core of humankind's technology center. Just look at where computer chips come from. What used to be Japan's unique achievement is now also Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean, etc…
The inertia of past success is gone. Colonial empires were dismantled and their remnants are crumbling.
Scale is not anymore in the West's favor. China alone produces more steel, concrete, cars, etc… than what we call the Western world.
And military dominance is all but certain. A central factor here is that instead of working as another colonial overlord, the USSR turned back into Russia and is now firmly just one member of the Global South vs the West.
See my previous naval warfare article to see how much of the West’s military advantage has eroded, especially at sea:
Still, there is plenty of space for a truly powerful America in the future.
Maybe not as dominant as in the post-1990 era, but at least equal to the 20th-century era.
So instead of a “AMERICA IS DOOMED” clickbait, I wanted to write a potential plan for America to stay at the center stage of the 21st century (from the perspective of the realist school of geopolitics).
The 3 Paths For America
Path 1: Business As Usual
The first path for America is the current one: denial.
Pretend that China is only producing cheap plastic toys.
That Russia is “a gas station masquerading as a country.”
That “the whole international community is supporting Ukraine.”
That sanctions works.
I could go on for a long time.
This is somewhat delusional, as I explained above. None of the factors that made first Portugal+Spain, then France, then the Netherlands + England, then the USA the world hegemony are in place anymore.
This is likely going to lead to a humiliating defeat somewhere along the way.
EVEN if the Ukraine war turns into a resounding Russian defeat. And if a Taiwan invasion by China is repelled.
At the end, you would still see several billion people in the “multipolar” centers of power turn unruly and able to challenge a weakened and borderline bankrupt America.
It would be a Pyrrhic victory at best.
A defeat could be as devastasting to domestic social and political order as was the Russian defeat to Japan in 1905, which would ultimately trigger the Bolchevik Revolution of 1917.
Path 2: Trumpmerica
The path of isolationism, and retreat.
Something quite in the American character of the pre-world wars era.
Definitely possible, even if not highly likely for now.
The idea of American god-given right to rule far away nations is now firmly entrenched in the collective psyche.
It would include the rise of nationalism, and the stopping of immigration or even reversing it with expulsions.
A renewed and invigorated conservatism turned quite radical.
The US could stay a great regional power but would lose its grip over most of its allies out of Canada and Mexico. Still, it would be a sort of North American dominion, probably a very coheisve and militaristic one at that, and would be able to stand on its own, as one among many poles of power.
Not terrible, but from the perspective of maintaining America’s worldwide power, by far the worst outcome.
Path 3: Strategic Retreat
Admitting that some things are beyond America’s concern.
Keep control over Europe and both the Americas.
Lose influence over Africa and Asia.
A strong fight over keeping Oceania in this sphere of influence.
By far the most realistic and viable option if the goal is to maximize America’s influence in the long term.
It would see America follow the path of the Roman Republic.
Instead of a collapse, a reform into a continent size empire that acknowledges the fact that the modern scale of American power makes the institutions and international relations designed for growing pre-industrial colonies are not working anymore.
Rightsizing The American Dominion
When a crisis occurs in a large corporation, “rightsizing” is the move to close unprofitable departments, fire not-so-useful workers, and refocus projects and commercial efforts.
This is the solution for America well.
So here is what I think a Marian reform (to take a Roman analogy) could look like, to turn the increasingly dysfunctional American republic into a functional American Dominion.
Europe
Control over Europe is easy to keep, as the Europeans are more than willing to stay vassalized to American culture and military.
Western Europe by a sheer lack of cultural vitality. Eastern Europe by fear of Russia.
Just don’t blow up their pipeline, and provide cheap gas and entertainment, and they will stay rather reliable at a low cost.
Not a very stellar image I show of my fellow Europeans there, but I am afraid it is an honest one.
Stopping trying to expand influence east of Romania and Turkey will also be needed.
North America
Canada is essentially America already, nothing geopolitical is needed here. Just build some infrastructure to better connect the USA to Canada and resources from Alaska (more roads, railroads, pipelines, etc…).
Mexico is a little trickier and needs stabilizing. Killing the drug trade at home (legalization + law enforcement) should do it.
Limiting immigration to only highly skilled people will keep the domestic destabilization effect of mass immigration low and stop the flow from even further South.
South America
This is a continuation of the Monroe Doctrine but with an update.
Opening trade to agricultural products and removing protectionism should bring back Brazil and Argentina in the American sphere at a low cost. Anyway, the ruling hegemony of an area should not be exporting mostly corn, soybean, and oil, but tech and manufactured goods as well.
No more predatory loans through the IMF to sustain the dollar will reduce the hostility for the West by a lot. (see below: Economics). The Great American Corridor of infrastructure will help as well (see below: Trade).
Asia
Asia is the obvious problem. I remember a comment by a group of top diplomats of Asian American allies, something like:
No matter what, China will still be there in decades.
So we need to learn to live with it.
This is the core issue.
Peter Weihan and Freidman fantasies of breaking China apart or starving its population through blockades are just that. Fantasies of a decaying ruling class.
Even if the military was defeated in the 2020s, China would still have a over a billion people with advanced technology, renewed nationalism, etc…
At worst, it would be like the humiliated Germany post WW1, setting the stage for a revenge and nastier war in the late 2030s.
The solution? Diplomacy.
As cynical as it sounds, I suspect giving up Taiwan has to be part of the deal. It matters just too much to mainland China, and I am not sure devastating it 10x more than Ukraine today is in Taiwanese people's interests anyway.
Not a new idea either, in 2011, the US press was openly discussing de facto “selling” Taiwan for $1T. Interesting how a NY Times article a decade ago would be branded Chinese/Russian propaganda today…
Taiwan would be the carrot.
No territorial expansion beyond that under risk of WW3 the stick.
Double down on supporting South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines. Including technology transfer in military technology.
Accept that Indochina and Indonesia want to stay neutral. And offer them good trading deals for the ASEAN to become the new China industry-wise.
The South Sea of China issue should be dealt with in a treaty whose outlines would be something like this:
stopping further militarization by all parties
guaranteeing total freedom of navigation INCLUDING the Malacca Strait.
Common sharing of the local resources like oil by all neighbors, maybe through a commonly held sovereign wealth fund.
This is not ideal, both sides might be unhappy with the details, which is why it might be an acceptable deal. Because peace is better than war.
China is not going anywhere, and will always care to reunite with Taiwan and keep trade open. So the US needs to trade with Asia but stop trying to control it.
That by far will be the most painful adjustment.
Oceania
In such new architecture, it would be tempting for Australia & New Zealand to look at China as their new overlord.
Cultural proximity with the US should be able to avoid that. Once again, trade deals can help a lot. Australia has a LOT of the natural resources America needs to rebuild its industry.
Internal Reforms
Trade & infrastructure
A key part for the USA to retake influence in South America over China is to be again the main trading partner of the region.
Part 1 is removing trade barriers.
Part 2 is subsidizing a massive infrastructure program, similar to the Belt and Road.
The USA should learn from China how powerful such an initiative is in collecting goodwill from poor countries. No more lectures, more building. It will also give plenty of work to American engineers and Trumpian Red America.
The Americas have a terrible North-South Geography, with a lot of mountains, jungles, and floodplains in the way. A large program of railroads is needed to access remote regions and promote regional trade and development. Currently, Brazil cannot trade properly with Peru, and entire regionspentitally rich regions like Paraguay are backwaters with little access to the world’s markets.
A similar program of harbors, roads, bridges, and so on should be done in the Caribbean.
I mentioned rail and trading infrastrucures, but it should also be pipelines, optic fibers, highways, hydro-power, refineries, factories, power plants, etc.
The money now printed to sustain 800 military bases across the globe should be directed to this project I will call “The Great American Corridor“.
Of course, this includes the normalization of relations with Cuba and Venezuela.
Technology
The technological edge needs to be revitalized. This means a complete reform of the university system.
Make STEM studies free of charge and easy to access for foreigners. Same for trade school and engineering. Over charge for other study paths, and not only liberal arts but also law, finance, etc…
Less lawyers and gender studies, more weilders and non-software engineers.
DRASTICALLY reduce the regulatory burden on heavy industry, manufacturing, mining, energy, etc...
Double down on space technology, maybe the last bastion of real American exceptional advantages (thanks to one man really). Build bases on the Moon and Mars and beyond, mine asteroids, produce solar power from the orbit, and dominate space tourism.
America should make the world dream of Sci-fi utopia again.
Or China will.
Economics & currency
The reserve status of the dollar has hollowed out the industrial base.
It has also enriched a corrupt elite through the Cantillon effect. (those who are close to the printing press get rich, and the rest fight for the scraps).
It is like a drug, first giving you a feeling of invincibility and strength, before destroying your health and mind.
So unwinding the dollar status in a controlled fashion should be the most important goal. Going back to a gold-back dollar is possible. It was so until 1971 after all, not in some medieval dark ages.
I truly believe that the American Power entered a path of decline in 1971 “Nixon Ends Convertibility of U.S. Dollars to Gold“.
Or as this brilliant website summarized “What The Fuck Happened In 1971“: https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Military
Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun - Mao Zedong
Not being militaristic or wanting to rule over the whole world does not mean turning America into a hippie commune.
The reforms should focus on what a real conflict (Ukraine) has shown as a deficiency.
Close most foreign bases.
cut spending massively, especially personnel costs, including retirement/vet benefits.
reduce attrition on equipment and strain on logistics.
drive the re-centering on the Americas + Europe
Rely on allies for regional defense, force them to spend 2% of GDP on their own military.
Limit high-tech systems to prototypes, not in service weapons.
advanced designs are great to develop the associated tech. But make for too expensive & un-maintainable weapons systems (like the Zumalt, F-35, etc).
Break apart giant contractors.
no more corrupt monopolies able to capture Congress and the Pentagon.
a solid defense ecosystem is better.
redundancy and “inefficiency” in defense is called resilience and safety.
Design for cheap mass production.
Modern wars are industrial wars
Production should be doable despite shortages, limited training, quickly and poorly assembled factories.
Simple material, cheap designs.
Mass stockpiling: Headlines about most NATO countries having enough ammo for 3 days are a disgrace. Every general responsible should be fired with no retirement, or even judged for treason.
Mandatory military service of 12 months for all 18y males.
it creates massive social cohesion + mixing of social classes.
it toughens young men that otherwise might stay sheltered all their life.
provide basic weapons and survival skills to the mass population.
provide the basis for the militia expected in the US constitution.
provide readiness and deterrence to a foreign enemy.
Energy
Speed up nuclear approval and reduce regulatory burdens. Especially on SMR (small modular reactors) and floating power plants.
Power it with Australian and Canadian uranium. Or even Indian thorium.
Bring those power plants in a generous amount to ALL your allies, including South America.
Sell the power at a reasonable price to every African and Asian country with a coastline. Help build power lines for landlocked countries.
Investigate space-based solar and fusion, but count on nuclear fission.
Also, boost Brazil, Argentina and Guyana's oil and gas outputs into becoming the alternative to the Middle East and Russia for the renewed Western alliance. Ultimately give Brazil a seat at the table as equal to France or the UK, as the regional leader and keystone powerhouse (literally and figuratively) of South America.
Turn the Caribean and equatorial South America into a petrochemical production powerhouse, ideally placed to re-export to the entire Atlantic Dominion.
Institutions
New international institutions are needed. In a multipolar world, the UN is as dead as the League of Nations was in the inter-war period.
The IMF + World Bank should be converted into something akin to the Belt and Road Initiative.
A new Council of the Americas should be created to discuss regional development, with permanent sites and veto rights for the USA, Canada, Mexico, and Brazil, with potentially Chile, Colombia, and Argentina as a rotating 5th members.
Ultimately the new Western alliance would be centered around 4 entities:
The Council of the Americas.
The Commonwealth (all former British colonies + USA).
The EU.
Japan + South Korea + other eventual Asian allies.
The ASEAN could be a close friend and partner, especially if antagonazing China is not anymore official policy. Same for India.
This alliance would control part of the Pacific, all of the Americas, the Atlantic and Europe except for Russia.
Likely, a new global governance structure will emerge with a representation for each block:
China
India
Russia+CIS
Iran/Shiite
Saudi Arabia/Sunni
ASEAN
Larger Western alliance and its multiple subcomponents.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, Rome had to grant citizenship to Greeks and all the people of the Italian peninsula, and even Gauls & North African. The reason was simply that you can only rule for so long over so many foreigners.
The alternative to an American-wide dominion is a narrower and more homogeneous Trumpmerica.
This can be fine depending of your political leaning.
But historically, Western imperial elites never go for this road of closing up.
They either overstretch and crash the empire for good, usually through an utterly devastating war.
Or they reform and expand more rationally.
So the choice is between these 2.
Let’s pray that the wiser decision will prevail.
Very rational, sensible approach which is why it's unlikely to be adopted in the current US political environment. A military loss and the advent of a new generation of leaders might help, but I wouldn't hold my breath.