Do you have any examples of countries where policies did turn around the declining birth rate or at least mitigate the slope of curve? If yes, are those policies similar with what the Chinese government is trying to do?
Hungary and Czechs have raised birth rate somewhat by essentially giving cash and tax dedcution to mothers, with a focus on 2nd and 3nd child. Russia did something similar.
Worth noting that it is from EXTREMELY low rate, so still in question if this is enough to go above 2.1/women
A other case is actually the Renaissance Europe. Birth rate had fallen to 3/women, which considering the child mortality at the time was below replacement rate. The church conducted a very active campaign to raise birth rate and make any contraception very hard to get (including the witches hunt) and it did work.
Not pretty but it worked.
I would also say that we have a good example of pro birth "policy" that work with religious communities of all creed:
Orthodox jews, Amish, Memmonites, Old beleivers, Setu in Estonia, some lutheran sect in Finland, French traditional catholics, Islamists in Europe, Mormons.
They all have social setup leading to 4-7 child/women.
At this point, entire states in Canada are being colonized by Memmonites.
So birth rate is about culture, not just money
My bet if that everything else fail, the repressed catholic and Christian communities in China would be the ones to make it. But if only them, this would then be a catastrophic crash before indeed.
I believe China can make it because it is simply not rich enough per capita to have the demography of Japan or Korea. Poorer people, working harder, are less likely to not want kid as a general rule.
Do you have any examples of countries where policies did turn around the declining birth rate or at least mitigate the slope of curve? If yes, are those policies similar with what the Chinese government is trying to do?
Hungary and Czechs have raised birth rate somewhat by essentially giving cash and tax dedcution to mothers, with a focus on 2nd and 3nd child. Russia did something similar.
Worth noting that it is from EXTREMELY low rate, so still in question if this is enough to go above 2.1/women
A other case is actually the Renaissance Europe. Birth rate had fallen to 3/women, which considering the child mortality at the time was below replacement rate. The church conducted a very active campaign to raise birth rate and make any contraception very hard to get (including the witches hunt) and it did work.
Not pretty but it worked.
I would also say that we have a good example of pro birth "policy" that work with religious communities of all creed:
Orthodox jews, Amish, Memmonites, Old beleivers, Setu in Estonia, some lutheran sect in Finland, French traditional catholics, Islamists in Europe, Mormons.
They all have social setup leading to 4-7 child/women.
At this point, entire states in Canada are being colonized by Memmonites.
So birth rate is about culture, not just money
My bet if that everything else fail, the repressed catholic and Christian communities in China would be the ones to make it. But if only them, this would then be a catastrophic crash before indeed.
I believe China can make it because it is simply not rich enough per capita to have the demography of Japan or Korea. Poorer people, working harder, are less likely to not want kid as a general rule.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/06/12/hungary-5-5-per-cent-birthrate-increase-pro-family-policies/
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2021/07/improve-us-birth-rate-give-parents-money-and-time/619367/
https://www.reuters.com/article/russia-md-medical-group-results-idUSL5N1GX2AU