Pivotal Moments - US Election

Start To Price Political Risks In Developed Markets

After a lot of reflection, I have come to the conclusion that there are very few ongoing or upcoming international geopolitics and economics events that will matter when looked at in the rearview mirror.

But each of these will be alternating during our lives in a major way, for we are living in a tumultuous period.

These will affect what sector we should be invested in.

You might not be interested in geopolitics, but geopolitics is interested in you. And your portfolio.

Today we will discuss the … eventful … American elections. This is by no means because it is the only thing happening, but that is a good start.

Here are a few of these events:

• The breaking down of American domestic politics. (Today’s report)

• The coming Great War in the Middle East (August report)

• The coming defeat of Ukraine (I guess for the September report, baring change in the news)

• The growing instability and impoverishment of Europe (a strong contender for September, considering the recent UK riots).

• The steady rise of China as a technological power. (mostly already covered, see link below).

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In these, I will get my neck on the line and make actual predictions of things to come, as it is becoming clearer (to me) what shape the second half of the 2020s will take.

Over these reports, we will see together what companies and sectors to avoid, a few stock ideas or a specific stock pick, and how they articulate with the other macro ideas.

So this is not just a news commentary, but as much as possible, an actionable report from an investing point of view.

Probably by the year-end, I will also do a dedicated report on how each of these large events will interact with each other.