As a rule, I am very skeptical of exploration/junior companies. Getting more experienced in commodities companies, I am even getting skeptical of any small companies, even the producing ones.
You can get x10 or lose your shirt. Very hard to predict which.
Always tempting, often not working out when trying to do it in real life.
I prefer to be "less greedy" and stick to a target of 10-20% CAGR returns, than moonshots with small upstarts. In very volatile sector AND capex intensive, it is safer to have either large scale for capital raises and debt, or big enough to self finance growth.
Regarding Guyana, I still think that CNOOC or the general Guyana stock exchange, including the banks, are probably the best play.
I would also maybe wait a few months to see how Venezuala threat of aggression impact that already not so liquid market.
Not yet for the direct account. Partially because I wanted to wait for a little bit more cash available and do it all at once. And now with Venezuela making threatening noises, I feel no immediate rush, I might look into it in December or January.
Regarding China I do not worry that stocks would do nothing for 10years as the government is doing almost everything possible to prop up the market. My worries are of geopolitical nature. For now I am hedging with deep out of the money TSM puts.
I am also considering a HK account, in order not to experience what the West did to own shareholders of Russian stocks. But on the other side it is also question, what China would do in a conflict situation. Direct Chinese (HK) account should help somehow, but I believe much would also depend on the citizenship/residency of the securities owner...
I am under the impression they would not nuke foreigner accounts in HK, as the ultimate goal is too look reasonable facing an hostile West, and stealing the money would damage its reputation with arab, russian, asian and south american investors. And ultimately friendly westerner as well.
A frozen account at worst is my expectation, like Russia did when it even offered a path for large enough accounts to open directly in Russia and transfer their assets there.
I have the same concern, I will welcome any info on how opening an accounts in HK worked if you are not a resident and what is the minimum amounts required.
I also suspect an account at a Singapore bank could be an alternative to HK bank. China will never want to antagonize THE financial center in SE-Asia by freezing their assets.
A maybe larger risk is that owning such account my get you in jail in the West for breaking sanctions.... Hence Singapore as maybe a good mid-way for people living in the West.
Haven't opened it yet, but got an impression that minimum is not an issue if opening brokerage account. But I have a feeling, that for bank account it is an another story. Speaking both for HK.
Did you expect energy to see a sustained surge/increase after the Israel-Palestine war begun?
Doesn't seem to be the case.
While I agree with your thesis that a reasonable % of our portfolios should be in energy, I wonder who will be the big winners (in terms of stock price surges) in Q42023 and Y2024.
Thanks for the consistently fantastic updates. You really do bring good value.
I am as many others puzzled by the current oil price action frankly.
Consensus seems to be worries about Chinese consumption, but this is rather weak reason alone
My bet is that it is a host of reasons converging together in the same time:
from general recession concerns, EU being a bigger issue than China even if its not "polite" to say it, because it would imply the Russian sanctions are self destructives
to Iran apparently offloading massive amount of its floating storage (how is that a bearish wait on oil, don't ask me...)
to war in Gaza not that bad YET and markets having the attention span of goldfish these last years
I will probably soon do a updates on the ongoing wars, to give a longer term view on how it could impact markets and oil in particular
Guayana: did you take a look at oil explorers with large exposure, like Eco Atlantic? I see great potential, but I am afraid of endless dillution...
As a rule, I am very skeptical of exploration/junior companies. Getting more experienced in commodities companies, I am even getting skeptical of any small companies, even the producing ones.
You can get x10 or lose your shirt. Very hard to predict which.
Always tempting, often not working out when trying to do it in real life.
I prefer to be "less greedy" and stick to a target of 10-20% CAGR returns, than moonshots with small upstarts. In very volatile sector AND capex intensive, it is safer to have either large scale for capital raises and debt, or big enough to self finance growth.
Regarding Guyana, I still think that CNOOC or the general Guyana stock exchange, including the banks, are probably the best play.
I would also maybe wait a few months to see how Venezuala threat of aggression impact that already not so liquid market.
CNOOC is probably too large for one to be able to obtain a significant leverage to Guayana, isn't it?
Have you suceed to open a direct account there?
Not yet for the direct account. Partially because I wanted to wait for a little bit more cash available and do it all at once. And now with Venezuela making threatening noises, I feel no immediate rush, I might look into it in December or January.
Regarding China I do not worry that stocks would do nothing for 10years as the government is doing almost everything possible to prop up the market. My worries are of geopolitical nature. For now I am hedging with deep out of the money TSM puts.
I am also considering a HK account, in order not to experience what the West did to own shareholders of Russian stocks. But on the other side it is also question, what China would do in a conflict situation. Direct Chinese (HK) account should help somehow, but I believe much would also depend on the citizenship/residency of the securities owner...
I am under the impression they would not nuke foreigner accounts in HK, as the ultimate goal is too look reasonable facing an hostile West, and stealing the money would damage its reputation with arab, russian, asian and south american investors. And ultimately friendly westerner as well.
A frozen account at worst is my expectation, like Russia did when it even offered a path for large enough accounts to open directly in Russia and transfer their assets there.
I have the same concern, I will welcome any info on how opening an accounts in HK worked if you are not a resident and what is the minimum amounts required.
I also suspect an account at a Singapore bank could be an alternative to HK bank. China will never want to antagonize THE financial center in SE-Asia by freezing their assets.
A maybe larger risk is that owning such account my get you in jail in the West for breaking sanctions.... Hence Singapore as maybe a good mid-way for people living in the West.
Haven't opened it yet, but got an impression that minimum is not an issue if opening brokerage account. But I have a feeling, that for bank account it is an another story. Speaking both for HK.
Did you expect energy to see a sustained surge/increase after the Israel-Palestine war begun?
Doesn't seem to be the case.
While I agree with your thesis that a reasonable % of our portfolios should be in energy, I wonder who will be the big winners (in terms of stock price surges) in Q42023 and Y2024.
Thanks for the consistently fantastic updates. You really do bring good value.
I am as many others puzzled by the current oil price action frankly.
Consensus seems to be worries about Chinese consumption, but this is rather weak reason alone
My bet is that it is a host of reasons converging together in the same time:
from general recession concerns, EU being a bigger issue than China even if its not "polite" to say it, because it would imply the Russian sanctions are self destructives
to Iran apparently offloading massive amount of its floating storage (how is that a bearish wait on oil, don't ask me...)
to war in Gaza not that bad YET and markets having the attention span of goldfish these last years
I will probably soon do a updates on the ongoing wars, to give a longer term view on how it could impact markets and oil in particular