The Coming Blockade of China (part 1)
The possible futures of a world superpower
This is the report I have been teasing about for a while because I wanted to make it right.
It is I think the single most important piece of the puzzle regarding the eventual success or failure of China as a rising world power. And by extension of its smaller partners, Iran and Russia.
It is also a key reason why we are looking at the threat of WW3 in the coming decade.
Why blockading China
Before I go into the detail of “how”, let’s go back a little to the “why” it could happen. Essentially, China is now a real superpower, in capacity if not in influence. Just a few statistics illustrating it:
It is the second largest economy in GDP, but the first in PPP since 2014, and the world's largest manufacturer since 2010.
It has 4 out of 10 of the world’s top financial centers.
The largest population (even if declining), only rivaled by India.
The only country with its own space station built without international partners
More high-speed railroads than the rest of the world combined.
Consumes a quarter of the world meat production.
All those record-breaking performances are highly reliant of China's integration into the world trade network.
To feed this enormous machine that is China, colossal input is required:
China is the largest importer of coal, and LNG, and imports 10% of the world's oil production (adding to its own considerable domestic production of energy from oil, coal, gas, hydro, solar, wind and nuclear)
China is the leading importer of iron, copper, bauxite (aluminum ore), sand, etc…
China is the leading importer of pork, soybeans, corn, rice, etc…
It consumes half of the world's integrated circuit production.
If these imports stopped, the Chinese economy would collapse, with potentially hundreds of millions starving. For reference, China feeds 20% of the world's population with only 10% of the world’s arable land. So even the local production is already likely pushed to a maximum.
So in case of a war, the most powerful weapon against China would not be nukes or missiles. It would be a blockade, one far from China’s shores.
As I detailed before, this is the usual method for sea powers like the USA. If you control the world trade through your navy, you can strangle any opponent by cutting it off international trade:
So if the USA perceives China’s rise as an unacceptable threat, it will start with sanctions. Those sanctions are now ever-expanding, from a focus on individual companies like Huawei to entire sectors like semiconductors. We should expect soon much wider sanctions in the medium term, no matter how “good” the recent Xi-Biden meeting went.
Sanctions on fishing fleets, coal miners, other miners, rare earth producers, delisting of US-listed companies, any tech companies, etc…
And not just from the US but all its vassals allies as well. The tweet below expresses the feelings of most China-friendly investors:
In the rest of the report we will see:
Why geography is making China extremely vulnerable to blockades.
Why it can turn into a massive military weakness.
How the US would organize the blockade of China.
The possible counterblockade on Taiwan by the PLA (People Liberation Army).
Could chips be the commodity that determine the outcome of WW3, the way coal did in WWI and oil in WW2?
How China is pouring hundreds of billions into bypassing the key chokepoints.
The role of Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Myanmar in providing vital supplies.
Why the BRICS extension are the missing pieces in the puzzle.
How to know if China is preparing to attack
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