The Gloves Are Off: Russian & Global South Edition
When the world leaders tell us they are not interested in peace, we should listen
Russia
Obviously, Russia had already sort of given up on diplomacy when it made explicit demands for Ukraine to formally be banned from ever entering NATO. Would that have avoided the war? Probably not. But the West ignoring the demands and later admitting the Minsk accord was a sham made it worse.
In no particular order, here are a few of the recent moves from Russia which seems to accept the direction the conflict is taking, a direct NATO-Russia confrontation:
Leaving the START nuclear treaty, as the US refuse Russian inspections.
Explaining that “the longer range the delivered weapons are, the deeper in Ukraine we need to conquer”
Declaring the “red line” of aircraft supply to Ukraine to be equivalent to a direct NATO attack, which would justify the bombing of Polish or Romanian airbases.
Russia-China
But of course, the other aspect is the strengthening support provided to Russia by China.
As I said in part 1, the West’s goal is now pretty clearly Russia's dissolution. This is unacceptable for China for several reasons:
It would create a chaotic area in the whole of Siberia, imagine the level of Lybia or Syria, but on a continental scale right at China’s border.
It would cut China from its vital land-based supply of grain, wood, metal, oil, gas, and power.
This would make China totally unable to survive a blockade, and put it at the mercy of the US fleet.
It would weaken drastically the SCO, the BRICS, the Belt and Road, and other Chinese relays of power.
It would create hundreds of billions, if not trillions in losses for China Belt and Road Initiative and multinationals.
Consequently, Xi is likely to visit Putin soon. In the meantime, Top diplomat Wang Yi is visiting Russia.
In parallel, Xi met the Belarusian president, opened new joint industrial facilities, and declared “unbreakable' friendship“.
What more could I say?
Africa
A recent development is also the de facto expulsion of colonial powers like France from African security affairs, often to be replaced by Russian mercenaries.
Video of the Congolese President to French President Macron,
(body language is quite telling of the level of “undiplomatic“ tension)
Video of the Namibian President to the German ambassador:
Mali's plan for Russian mercenaries to replace French troops unsettles Sahel
At least, Macron seems to have been acknowledging the change in African-France relations:
“I am struck by how much we are losing the trust of the Global South”.
This was said at the same Munich conference where Kamala Harris made her “crime against humanity” declaration.
Others
Consistently over the top, North Korea also said that interference with its weapons test would be considered a declaration of war. Let’s hope this is just bluffing…
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Iran are re-establishing diplomatic ties for the first time in 7 years, under China's “friendly encouragement”. A huge win for Chinese diplomacy, and a huge blow for the USA, seeing its 80+ years-long alliance with Saudia Arabia crumble suddenly.
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(Why this is happening, I have covered in my recent report below)
It seems that the foresight of geopolitical genius Brzezinski was indeed prophetic: "Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran, an 'antihegemonic' coalition united not by ideology but by complementary grievances."
Except, it seems that African countries and even a long-time ally like Saudia Arabia are to be added to forming a coalition.
I doubt Brzezinski would have envisioned a diplomatic strategy so inept that it would push Brazil and Argentina into the same anti-hegemonic alliance… (See my BRICS to BRICA article for more detail):
Even Mexico is seemingly starting to refuse foreign interference from its northern big brother: "We don't accept. We are not a protectorate nor a colony of the US. We do not receive orders from anyone. Mexico is a free, independent sovereign country."
A risk ignored for decades
Do you know what is the most absurd?
I found an apparently amusing 1997 Biden speech:
“I told the Russians that if they didn’t like NATO expansion, go see the Chinese. And if that does not work, go see Iran”. The audience seems to have found it very funny in 1997. (follow the link for the 18s extract, I cannot integrate the video in the article)
This says a lot about the hubris of the American establishment to have found such a prospect funny.
Brzezinski's level of intelligence and analysis, they are not…
Overall
The conclusion is that the Global South is now massively turning anti-West, and supporting the Eurasian Tripod Russia/Iran/China.
Even partial allies and democracies like India are getting “fretty”, according to the Spectator article: Is Putin winning? The world order is changing in his favour.
“We have not accepted the Western interpretation of the conflict. In fact, there are very few people in the Global South who want to do this." (former Indian Ambassador to Russia)
The Spectator article had other surprisingly honest parts:
So we have an aggressive Russia, and a Global South that is unwilling to help the West or actively siding against it.
Next part, let’s see what are China's declarations.