The Persi-stant Empire (part 1)

Looking at the potential and limitations of Iran/Persia

When it comes to country, empire, and civilization, some are passing flickers in history, while others seem indestructible. For example, Egypt was a flourishing civilization for so long that at times it seems eternal. Others, like the Mongol empire, crumbled as soon as they formed.

Each empire has its natural borders, beyond which overextension spells disaster. The Greeks and Rome never expanded durably beyond the Mediterannean. China is still centered around the Yellow River in the South and the Yangtze in the North.

Persia is a good example of such an empire. No matter the defeat, invasion, or conquest, it always re-emerges as a major Middle-East power after a while.

In this introduction, I will explain the deep historical roots of Iran/Persia, the fundamental of its civilization, and how it became what it is today.

In part 2 (for subscribers), I will look at how history tells us how far Iranian influence can go and why Iran is poised for a rebound as a dominant Middle-East power. And how this expansion might take place.

The desert and the mountains

Iran is a rough, mountainous country. It is defined on its north by the Alborz mountains, on its south by the Zagros mountains, and on its East by the Lut desert.

It is also doing the junction between the Caspian Sea and the Indian Ocean + the Persian Gulf.

The first cities started not in Iran but in Mesopotamia (meaning between the rivers of the Tigris and Euphrates) of nowadays Iraq. In this deep antiquity of the Bronze age, the river cities would control most of the Middle East, only rivaled by Egypt to its West and the Hittites in modern-day Turkey.

The more populated, technologically advanced, and organized Mesopotamian cities dominated the pastoral population in the surrounding mountains. Notably, “Elam” in the Zagros mountains.

When Mesopotamia was weakened by external or civil war, the sheep and goat herders of the mountains would turn into raiders. This plain vs mountain tension would keep playing over time, up to the modern Iraq-Iran war.

The core of Iran is a secure place shielded by mountains and deserts from which to build a power base. It then tends to expand outward. In general, Iran tends to control at least some of central Asia and Iraq.

A brief history of Persia

This is about geopolitics and not a history lesson (for a complete overview, I recommend the Wiki article on Iran). But a quick overview will show how consistent the Persian nation/empire is over time. The region was unified by the Medes, another Iranian tribe besides the Elamites.

A succession of empires would control the region, with the occasional interruption of conquest by foreigners (Alexander’s Greeks, Mulsim Arabs, Mongols, etc…). No matter the conquest, assimilation, and rebellion would ensure the restoration of a Persian empire right after.

The Achaemenid empire, aka the first world superpower. That’s the Persians fighting at Thermopyles in 300.

The Parthian Empire would often manage to defeat the Romans.

The Sasanian empire, the last non-Muslim Iranian empire

The Safavid empire, which would be key in defining modern Iran's identity by imposing Shiia Islam on the region.

And finally, modern-day Iran, a remarkably small country compared to its forerunner empires.

Modern-day Iran is where the center of Persian power has always been. The historical reach of Persia was to extend much further:

• to the East into half of Afghanistan and Pakistan

• to the North into Turkmenistan.

• to the East: Iraq + up to Turkey/Greece, the Levan (Syria, Lebanon, Israel), and Egypt

• to the South to control Kuwait, and occasionally the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Yemen territories.

With that historical reach in mind, it is not so surprising to see modern Iranian leaders having seemingly outsized ambition in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. For most of history since Antiquity, almost ALL the Middle East was under Iranian control.

We can also be sure that the retreat from Afghanistan and the instability in Pakistan will help Iran leverage significant and mostly unchallenged influence on these regions as well.

More importantly, none of the other forces that previously managed to contain Iran are in the shape to do so:

• the all-powerful massive Ottoman empire is gone, replaced by a geopolitically confused and ineffective Turkey.

• The Arab powers are petromonarchies unable to assemble an efficient army.

• Iraq is in disarray since the US invasion.

• Egypt is busy with internal strife since the 20011 revolution.

• The horse-riding Mongol and Turkic hordes of central Asia are not a military power anymore.

It also never significantly managed to spread further than the Middle East and the fringes of Central Asia. Internal dissension, autocratic ruling culture, and stronger opponents out of the region (Greece, Rome, India, Russia, China) have always blocked any attempts to expand further.

Shias, Sunnis, and other divisions

The maps above might give the impression of a unified cultural space over millennia. Nothing could be farther from the truth. The Persian empire has always been a delicate balance of decentralization and autocratic power.

A strong top-heavy power was needed to keep the whole from breaking apart. But the massive ethnic and cultural diversity required a lot of leeway for local peculiarities. Assembling together tens of competing and often hating each other ethnicity, clans, and tribes is not an easy task.

We can see where the Iranian influence has been the most durable by looking at where Iranic languages are spoken (below in orange). The other 2 large linguistic/cultural blocs are Turkish and Arabic. But even within these groups, plenty of division abounds, making the region famously fractious, unstable, and unruly.

On top of these cultural and ethnic divisions comes the question of religion. The Shiia are the largest minority in Islam, which is predominantly Sunni. Out of the Middle East Muslims are almost all Sunni, including population juggernauts like Indonesia.

The division between the 2 branches of Islam is bitter and runs back to almost the foundation of the religion. I can personally attest that a good way to rile up an otherwise calm and modern Muslim is by asking him what he thinks of the other branch of Islam.

To the modern Western reader, it might be hard to fathom the visceral hate these 2 groups can have for each other. This is very similar to the Catholic vs Protestant conflict we had in Europe in the XVII century. Now almost forgotten, it was the reason behind massive massacres in France, Holland, Germany, and England, and the fuel behind the 30 Years’ War which left the Holy Roman Empire with only A THIRD of its population left. This should give you a scale of how important and nasty such conflicts can turn out.

As the center of Shiism, Iran can leverage its influence among other Shia in Sunni-controlled countries. This includes Yemen and Syria, but also the population of the oil-producing regions of Saudia Arabia or Bahrein.

(For reference, Sadam Hussein was essentially part of a Sunni-elite ruling over the Shiia majority in Iraq).

The Shia vs Sunni division has a few lasting consequences:

1. Iran is always at odds with the other Middle-Eastern powers. Any alliance or detente is more likely than not to be circumstantial and temporary.

2. Iran has a lot of “cheap” relay of power. Many armed groups and civilians will help Iran's geopolitical goals due to a sense of religious brotherhood.

3. Persian power relied on large wealth from trade (being the key connecting node on the Silk Road). Iran can wield influence in the Middle East without that, using religious influence instead.

Theocratic rule

Iran has been an Islamic theocracy since the 1979 Revolution. This has severely reduced civil liberties, and women’s rights and impacted Iran’s economic growth. It is also responsible for regular bouts of quasi-revolt, like in 2021.

The role of Shia Islam in Iran's influence also explains partially the vocal and often fanatical rhetoric coming from its leadership. While some of that is probably genuine, some is just a way to position Iran as the natural regional leader for an “oppressed and righteous Shia population”. To position itself as a “righteous Muslim power fighting against the Zionist (Israel)” is part of the same toolbox.

This type of discourse allows Iran to punch way above its economical and military abilities by acquiring essentially “for free” (in practice, with limited financials and military support) power relays in the region.

Oil & Gas and Economy

A discussion on Iran cannot ignore the main source of wealth of the country.

It should not be overestimated, as the country is actually a lower-middle income economy, producing plenty of agricultural and manufactured goods. Due to sanctions and a centrally planned economy, the imports of the country account for very little.

It mostly imports complex or high-tech products, and no doubt would purchase more if possible. The Iranian industry is notoriously short on electric, electronic, and modern machinery/components and its industry struggles to be competitive in these conditions. A large level of centralization and top-down control stifles additionally the economic output.

You can see in detail Iran's top 10 imports here.

Iran's exports are made of 40% oil & gas, the rest being made of basic materials (plastic, steel, fertilizers,…) and agricultural products (fruits, nuts, spices,…).

You can see in detail Iran's top 10 exports here.

Overall, the country does have a productive economy but is still massively reliant on fossil fuel exports. In that respect, technological support from Russia and continuous purchases by China is a vital lifeline. Even then, Iran's oil output is at least 1 million barrels per day lower due to US sanctions.

China has been a steady buyer, although a tough one. Under a 25-year “Strategic Accord” from 2020, China is buying Iranian oil at a total discount of 20%-32%, with delayed payment of up to 2 years.

This was in exchange for a $280B investment in the Iranian oil & gas industry and a $400B total investment. The agreement came also with various support and supply in military and rocket technology.

Iran's oil & gas is located in the South-West, the region Sadam Hussein hoped to take over in the 8 years-long Iraq-Iran war.

Some of the deposits are shared with countries on the other side of the Persian Gulf, most importantly the South Pars gas field with Qatar. This field made Qatar the world’s largest LNG exporter. The Iranian side has been underdeveloped in comparison. A $500M investment this May 2022 and new pipelines just days ago should change that.

Vital chokepoint

The last thing I will mention is the Strait of Hormuz. This extremely narrow strip of water on the Iranian Southern border with where most of the Middle-East oil leaves the region by supertanker. The threat of sinking ships in the Strait and making it un-navigable is something always at hand for Iran.

Such action would probably bring a massive war of all the Gulf powers against it (as well as the US in all likelihood). It would also cut so much energy supply to the World that a global depression would be guaranteed.

This “nuclear option” is in my opinion now the large reason why despite high tensions and hostility, no regional crisis escalated to a direct confrontation between Shia Iran and Sunni Gulf powers. Both know that it could lead to the total collapse of all parties involved.

Interestingly, Iran has developed an oil & gas export terminal in the port of Chabahar, EAST of the Strait of Hormuz. The harbor will also be able to handle larger, deep-water cargoships which Iran’s other harbors could not welcome until now.

This was done with massive financial support from both Russia and China.

To follow in part 2

As the weakest and least stable pillar of the Eurasian Tripod, I consider Iran the most interesting and important country to analyze for the future of Eurasia.

We will analyze the possible long-term plans of Iran in part 2 (for subscribers only). And if the country might achieve its ambitions, as well as how it could fail.