The Persi-stant Empire (part 2)

Iran ambitions and possible futures

In part 1, I covered the remarkable consistency of the Persian empire, which has been around for almost 3000 years. This gives us the proper timeframe to understand Iranian/Persian civilization and its sphere of influence.

This also takes a proper distance from the modern geopolitical analyses of Iran. Most are focused on the survival or not of the Mullah regime. Or the tensions with Israel. Those questions are important and I will discuss them below.

Nevertheless, none of those can be properly treated if locked in the frame of mind that modern Iran started in 1979. The country has a potential and history that goes way deeper than any theocratic regime.

So with the proper context, let’s see what Iran’s ambitions are, the tools it can leverage, and how it could fail.

This report will also explore the limits to historical parallels, Iran’s ongoing integration into Eurasia as well as the possible consequences of its nuclear program.

And like usual, investing ideas and warnings linked to the topic at hand: Iran’s slow rebirth as a powerful Eurasian power.

What does Iran want?

It is always a tricky thing to personify a country. Iran is a fictional construct when it comes to the actual decision-making process. Iran's direction is decided by an elite ruling using religion to justify its power and to decide the direction of the country. And there is a people with multiple sub-groups each with their own interests.

Still, I will consider for now Iran as an ongoing nation working forward in a similar way to the past few decades. The implication and possibilities for a regime change or reforms will be discussed toward the end.