The Suburbs of the Eurasian Core
The Suburbs of the Eurasian Core
1 core, 4 peripheries
A World Island to rule them all
As I explained in the article launching this publication, the XXIth century will be marked by the growing unification of what I will call the Eurasian Core.
This is very far from a new idea and traces back at least to Mackinder’s heartland theory. While his name stays attached to the idea, I would suspect the concept was already widely discussed/accepted at least a century before during the Napoleonic war.
This theory describes Eurasia as the “World Island”. It might make up only 36% of Earth's landmass, but represents 70% of the world’s population. In a nutshell, who controls the World-Island controls the world as a whole.
In the time of Mackinder, a more Euro-centric vision dominated, with Europe + Russia being the key part to control. This most likely influenced the empire-building goals of both XXth century totalitarian regimes, the Third Reich and the Soviet Union.
Since then, the economic growth of Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and of course, China, has rebalanced the center of the heartland eastward.
I will make the argument that the new heartland is centered around the nascent alliance I labeled the Eurasian Tripod: Russia + Iran + China.
One core, 4 peripheries
Included in the Eurasia core is not only the Tripod, but also the Caucasus and all the “stan” countries (I will in due time write a proper study of the “stan” region, but for convenience’ sake will lump them together for now). These extra regions have their own peculiarity, but little geopolitical agency in practice.
Around the Core orbit 4 different regions, each with its own set of interests, challenges, and relations to the Eurasian Core. I will use a filter of geopolitics and cultural element more than pure geography to define these regions
The European peninsula: essentially starting where Russia ends, up to the Atlantic. Culturally and geopolitically split between Western and Eastern Europe.
The Middle East, which here will include North Africa for cultural, religious, and economic reasons.
South Asia: split between the Indian subcontinent and South-East Asia.
Pacific Asia: made of Japan, Korea, and Taiwan.
Source: https://geology.com/world/world-map.shtml
The Eurasian playbook
Understanding the dynamic of each of these peripheries regions is crucial to accurately understand the future decision of the Tripod (Russia, Iran, and China). And by extension, most of the world's economic and geopolitical future.
Each of the 3 members brings to the alliance its own history and interests. Due to external pressure from the "West”, the Tripod has strong incentives to find compromise and push forward on common interests.
The stronger a unified Eurasia emerges (potentially around the Shangai Cooperation Organisation), the more likely it would be able to increase its control of the other peripheries as well as Africa.
Would the Eurasian Core manage to ally/dominate/conquer/subdue several of its peripheries, it could successfully marginalize the USA and the whole Western continent. This would make the USA a strong, but much less relevant power isolated on the other side of the world.
I will in due time explain specific sub-regions and topics about each of the 4 peripheries, but I will in this article limit myself to giving a brief overview.
The European Peninsula
Power & weaknesses
The region harbored the mainland of the colonial empires that carved up the world for centuries. The region is still an economic powerhouse even if in relative decline to the rest of the world. It is relatively united under the umbrella of the European Union.
Despite the EU's best efforts, several deep divisions persist. North vs South when it comes to economic performance and political and social aspects. West vs East when it comes to values and culture regarding religion, civil rights, morality, and immigration.
Eastern Europe is more dynamic economically, but with a dramatically low birth rate. Western Europe is less dynamic, and has a slightly higher birth rate mostly thanks to non-European immigrants, which comes with its own social and political complications.
Relation to the Eurasian Core
The region is one of the 2 main trading partners for the Eurasian Core (together with North America). It sources from its natural resources (Russia) and manufactured products (China). These trading dynamics are as old as civilization, going back to Roman times. Notably, Roman gold would keep flowing eastward in exchange for spices, silk, and luxury products on the first Silk Road.
Beyond Silk Road trading, most of the region's relations to the Eurasian Core have been defined by its relation to Russia. Historically, the European powers of the time have had more conflict than cooperation with Russia. They also tend to perceive the East as backward, aggressive, and brutish compared to their own higher civilization.
The little military cooperation happening was generally done to coopt Russia in an alliance against another rising European power with hegemonic ambitions:
Versus the French Napoleonic empire
Versus the Central Powers and the Ottoman Empire in WWI
Versus Nazi Germany in WWII
And of course, as the recent Ukraine conflict sadly illustrates, a lot of the relations between Eastern Europe with Russia are still dominated by the decades-long Soviet occupation and the USSR’s collapse.
Colonial powers like France and England also have a complicated relationship with countries like China, which they dominated through trade and warfare (Opium wars). They essentially act like it never happened, while China is still doing regular references to the “Century of Humiliation” to this day.
The middle east
Power & weaknesses
The region used to be the connector between Europe and Asia, as the nomadic raiders (Huns, Khazars, Mongols, Tatars, etc…) in the Nordic steppes made the Northern road too dangerous for trade. This role is now almost entirely gone, replaced by international sea routes, with the exception of the Suez canal chokepoint.
The region is nowadays relevant mostly for its abundance of oil & gas, making it the first energy supplier to energy-hungry countries in Europe and Asia. Countries without fossil fuel resources tend to be underdeveloped, with the notable exception of Turkey and Iran. I consider Iran as both part of the Eurasian core and the Middle East, being at the junction between the Middle East and the Eurasian Core).
The region derives its unity from the initial Islamic and Arabic expansion of the 7th century. To this day, this is the source of shared language, culture, and religion. As well as the source of all its sectarian and regional divisions (ethnic Arabs versus non-Arabs, Shiite versus Shia Muslims, Muslims versus non-Muslims, Arab speakers versus other languages, etc…)
Relation to the Eurasian Core
Russia has traditionally had a relatively hostile relationship with the Middle Eastern powers. This was shaped by the position of Russia as the Christian Orthodox “Third Rome” (since the fall of Constantinople), in opposition to the Ottoman Empire. Notably, Russia has liberated from Ottoman rule all of the Balkans and Greece.
For Iran, heir to the Persian Empire, controlling the West area of its homeland has been a never-ending struggle. Over centuries, its borders tend to expand and contract depending on its internal stability and the unity of its opponents.
For China, the region has mostly been an afterthought. Commercial interests rule, with most of China's energy imports sourced from suppliers in the region. Traditionally neutral, China is recently forging a much stronger relationship with Iran, while still trying to stay on friendly terms with Iran's rivals, especially the oil-rich Gulf monarchies.
South Asia
Power & weaknesses
The region's main advantage is its large population and high fertility around the Equator line, fed by water flowing from the Himalayan plateau. It is characterized by a young population and quick economic growth.
Relation to the Eurasian Core
Due to the mostly unpassable Himalayan mountains, the Indian subcontinent only had cultural and religious exchanges with China. Until recently, the 2 civilizations mostly lived on 2 different planets. India's history with the South-West corner of the Eurasian Core is one of religious conflict, from the first Islamic invasion of India to today’s rivalry with Pakistan.
The relation to China is different in South-East Asia. It is more important the more East and North you go, as mountains become more possible to cross and sea routes are shorter.
Depending on China’s reach and stability, this has been a relation made of trading or tribute-paying. This historical relation explains largely the tensions around the South China Sea resources (with trade routes compounding the issue, see the future article “Blockading China”).
The size of China economy’s and population make it the natural dominant trade partner for all countries in the region, whether they are comfortable with that fact or not. The presence in the region of a large Chinese diaspora influential in trading helps expand Chinese influence as well.
Pacific Asia
Power & weaknesses
The region is very wealthy per capita, a trend initiated by early Japanese industrialization. The wealth of the area comes from a combination of ancient, highly organized societies, a strong work ethic, and a focus on exporting industries like shipbuilding, smartphones, electronics chips, industrial tools, cars, etc… A tendency toward large corporations and conglomerates is typical of the region's economy.
The main challenge for the components of the region is demography. With one of the world’s lowest birth rates, robotics seems the only way to keep production at current levels. It also lacks cultural unity, with Taiwan a breakaway Chinese province, Japan being an isolated power, and Korea being divided in two and still resentful of Japanese aggression in WWII.
Relation to the Eurasian Core
Mostly antagonistic, the relation to the Eurasian Core is shaped by WWII. Most notably, the Japanese brutal invasion and occupation are still remembered by its neighbors.
From mainland China's perspective, Taiwan is a breakaway rebel province, an incident of history from WWII, not an independent nation.
While recently more friendly to China, Korea will not be able to move forward as long as North Korea's communist dictatorship still split the historical Korean nation in two.
Due to this antagonism, the region is the most receptive in Asia to the US-led strategy of China's “containment”. Considering the recent outcome of Russia’s containment by NATO expansion, this means obvious danger for conflict escalation.
Future publications
That’s it for today.
Now that I have set the framework, I will get started with analyses more actionable and relevant to current events.
I have set the next 3 reports behind the paywall to be:
The New Polish Commonwealth
Russia’s Futures
China’s Weaknesses
Each report will have a free introduction.
Please tell me if there is any topic that you would be interested to see me cover as well.
Until next time.