Great post. The West has truly ruined its reputation and relationship with increasing segments of the Global South.
There are plenty of ways to take advantage of this from an investment stand point. Your quote on thinking twice about buying machinery from western companies I echo. One of my long term positions is Sany Heavy Industries who are growing much more quickly than and will take a lot of market share from Caterpillar, Komatsu and Deer over the coming years in the developing world.
It's worth looking into. Still heavily domestic-focused, so 2022 profit figures suffered accordingly. But their growth rates are excellent, particularly in export which is around 25% of sales preliminary news says grew 40%+ in 2023.
I think SANY is a great play on the pivot of the Global South away from US and EU manufacturers, particularly across SE Asia and South America. We know we are entering a resource super cycle which means more of those big mining machines needed as well as to be replaced every five years or so. From the commentary I've read, SANY produces excellent quality comparable to CAT, but at 20-30% cheaper. I think their market share will continue to rise rapidly worldwide as a result (ex-US and EU once tensions ratchet higher).
It dropped a fair way from its high due to the lower profit results, and still has a reasonable valuation of PE ~ 29 (taking the first 9 months and extrapolating out), but that I think can be expected due to its potential. It's still a small player on the worldwide scale, but growing rapidly. Note though all my commentary is on SANY Heavy Industries (600031), not the smaller HK listed Sany Heavy Equipment (0631) which some sources use interchangeably.
From what I've read, while sales may have dropped from demand in 2022 with China lockdown, they don't seem to have suffered from supply issues unlike Komatsu. I also hold United Tractor who hasn't been able to source enough machinery from Japan to sell.
Being Shanghai-listed, its hard to find detailed information in English, but I have an English version of the 2021 annual report I can send through to you if interested. Here's also some reading you may find helpful (some just PR fluff, so take it for what its worth).
By all means, please poke holes in the company for me :)
I will come back to that after I am done with a bunch of other project, starting from the next report on Guyana
I had a similar problem with language recently doing a paid job on CATL. Reporting of Chinese company in English is dreadful and remarkably outdated or totally absent.
As I already covered CNOOC before, I am looking at another angle which is the guyanese stock market itself. Complicated research so far ... stay tuned :)
Demerera Distillers looks interesting to me in Guyana, but the market is already very steeply priced sadly. Will be interested to hear what you come up with.
Completely agree with your points on the west ruining its reputation and not helping contribute to world peace.
But although I do agree with your point that money in foreign accounts isn’t safe for a country, the 2 examples you give are vastly different. I agree that stealing 300b of russian money was wrong, because they had very little debt and didn’t say they would stop paying government bonds till after its money was stolen.
Vezuela on the other hand had stolen many company’s there assets and had to pay a lot of people back and just didn’t, so holding there gold till a agreement is made to pay back debt holders isn’t that rare or bad I think. If the country doesn’t want to cooperate with debt holders they should be held accountable and I think this is a fair way to do it, same thing happened when Argentinia defaulted on its debt.
I think it would be a 10/10 if u explained that somewhat better.
The common pattern was a disregard of rule of law.
Sizing of Venezuela gold was never done as a measured compensation for the very real stealing done by Venezuela before. It was more "because we say so" type of action.
One of the first so brazen about it, even if Iraq "disapeared" reserves is probably the precursor
So I would disagree it was fair, as that gold never went to the investors and debt holders, but stayed in the UK central bank as far as I can tell.
Venezuela stealing foreigners is not reason for the UK stealing Venezuela's gold, especially if it is too keep it for themselves.
Great post. The West has truly ruined its reputation and relationship with increasing segments of the Global South.
There are plenty of ways to take advantage of this from an investment stand point. Your quote on thinking twice about buying machinery from western companies I echo. One of my long term positions is Sany Heavy Industries who are growing much more quickly than and will take a lot of market share from Caterpillar, Komatsu and Deer over the coming years in the developing world.
Sany is something I never looked into.
Are they massively exposed to the Chinese real estate slowing down? Or are they already a somewhat caterpillar-like international firm?
It's worth looking into. Still heavily domestic-focused, so 2022 profit figures suffered accordingly. But their growth rates are excellent, particularly in export which is around 25% of sales preliminary news says grew 40%+ in 2023.
I think SANY is a great play on the pivot of the Global South away from US and EU manufacturers, particularly across SE Asia and South America. We know we are entering a resource super cycle which means more of those big mining machines needed as well as to be replaced every five years or so. From the commentary I've read, SANY produces excellent quality comparable to CAT, but at 20-30% cheaper. I think their market share will continue to rise rapidly worldwide as a result (ex-US and EU once tensions ratchet higher).
It dropped a fair way from its high due to the lower profit results, and still has a reasonable valuation of PE ~ 29 (taking the first 9 months and extrapolating out), but that I think can be expected due to its potential. It's still a small player on the worldwide scale, but growing rapidly. Note though all my commentary is on SANY Heavy Industries (600031), not the smaller HK listed Sany Heavy Equipment (0631) which some sources use interchangeably.
From what I've read, while sales may have dropped from demand in 2022 with China lockdown, they don't seem to have suffered from supply issues unlike Komatsu. I also hold United Tractor who hasn't been able to source enough machinery from Japan to sell.
Being Shanghai-listed, its hard to find detailed information in English, but I have an English version of the 2021 annual report I can send through to you if interested. Here's also some reading you may find helpful (some just PR fluff, so take it for what its worth).
By all means, please poke holes in the company for me :)
- Extraordinary growth in international business https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/sany-reports-record-high-overseas-sales-to-cap-off-hugely-successful-2022-301724902.html
- Types of machinery and market share https://im-mining.com/2022/10/20/sany-cementing-its-global-success/
- Gaining on US competitors https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/ceos-will-have-to-reckon-with-chinese-machines/2022/12/01/a05c7168-71c3-11ed-867c-8ec695e4afcd_story.html
- Expanding into machinery for wind power industry https://www.clbrief.com/chinese-heavy-equipment-manufacturer-sany-to-explore-wind-power-industry-in-brazil/
- Innovation https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/innovation-high-cost-performance-ratio-and-premium-service--the-keys-to-sanys-global-success-301720361.html
- Construction machinery & Sany's future https://www.seetao.com/details/114272.html
thanks a lot!
I will come back to that after I am done with a bunch of other project, starting from the next report on Guyana
I had a similar problem with language recently doing a paid job on CATL. Reporting of Chinese company in English is dreadful and remarkably outdated or totally absent.
Completely agree.
I'm very bullish on Guyana myself, great minds ;)
Holding exposure through CNOOC and another small player. A book that may be
of interest: 'Oil Dorado: Guyana's Black Gold'
As I already covered CNOOC before, I am looking at another angle which is the guyanese stock market itself. Complicated research so far ... stay tuned :)
I also have exposure via Canada.
Demerera Distillers looks interesting to me in Guyana, but the market is already very steeply priced sadly. Will be interested to hear what you come up with.
Completely agree with your points on the west ruining its reputation and not helping contribute to world peace.
But although I do agree with your point that money in foreign accounts isn’t safe for a country, the 2 examples you give are vastly different. I agree that stealing 300b of russian money was wrong, because they had very little debt and didn’t say they would stop paying government bonds till after its money was stolen.
Vezuela on the other hand had stolen many company’s there assets and had to pay a lot of people back and just didn’t, so holding there gold till a agreement is made to pay back debt holders isn’t that rare or bad I think. If the country doesn’t want to cooperate with debt holders they should be held accountable and I think this is a fair way to do it, same thing happened when Argentinia defaulted on its debt.
I think it would be a 10/10 if u explained that somewhat better.
The common pattern was a disregard of rule of law.
Sizing of Venezuela gold was never done as a measured compensation for the very real stealing done by Venezuela before. It was more "because we say so" type of action.
One of the first so brazen about it, even if Iraq "disapeared" reserves is probably the precursor
So I would disagree it was fair, as that gold never went to the investors and debt holders, but stayed in the UK central bank as far as I can tell.
Venezuela stealing foreigners is not reason for the UK stealing Venezuela's gold, especially if it is too keep it for themselves.