For this one, the article was quite long and dense, so I mostly explained how it will play out, and did not really dive on stock/sector recommendations to keep it readable
This could be a could follow up to add to it, thanks for the idea!
There is a bit of a negative list I can think on the fly, anything Taiwan is really risky, Korea not much better, especially semiconductors
Europe is so screwed in so many ways
China might be tradable, but you need to know when to exit, Russia stocks style
On the positive:
South America oil and food commodity would do great, Brazil or Argentina shenaingans are nothing compare to what is unfolding in tensions and card shuffling in Eurasia
Australian defense companies come to mind as well, this might for a stock report as well as I have a name I need to investigate before picking it
I can think of a few points, and this actually could be the outline of a follow up article.
1/
First is ressources prices
If lithium stay this high or worse, the economics of EVs are terrible. So this is still an alternative, but a really bad one. And one that reduce the country's overall productivity semi-permanently.
Same apply to copper, and it's even worse as lithium could be replace by sodium battery or phosphate, etc... but copper is the vital point in electrification. In that respect,
Rio Tinto's Turquoise Hill in Mongolia is SOOO important. So ar relation to Argentina (soon in the BRICS) and Chile+Peru.
2/
The other could be sanctions hitting the renewable and nuclear industry.
I am sure some machinery for making solar panels need german parts, and would not be surprised some nuclear parts like controls, valves, turbines, etc... require Western tech and could be hurt the way the semiconductors have been.
I am actually surprised it did not happen yet, but my guess is that as Western government are unable to understand their OWN powergrid, blinding by what I called the ideology of the "Green Leap Backward", they are equally inept at realizing how they could slow down China's preparations on that front
3/
lack of time.
If Taiwan declare independence soon, there is not enough EV and not enough finish nuclear power plant to avoid an economic and potentially military disaster. In that respect, if we see the US pressing hard in the next 12 months, it will mean they have come to the (probably correct) conclusion a war is more winnable sonner than later.
I think you're spot on here
Will your follow up article also feature how to play this scenario e. g. what kind of industries could possibly benefit?
For this one, the article was quite long and dense, so I mostly explained how it will play out, and did not really dive on stock/sector recommendations to keep it readable
This could be a could follow up to add to it, thanks for the idea!
There is a bit of a negative list I can think on the fly, anything Taiwan is really risky, Korea not much better, especially semiconductors
Europe is so screwed in so many ways
China might be tradable, but you need to know when to exit, Russia stocks style
On the positive:
South America oil and food commodity would do great, Brazil or Argentina shenaingans are nothing compare to what is unfolding in tensions and card shuffling in Eurasia
Australian defense companies come to mind as well, this might for a stock report as well as I have a name I need to investigate before picking it
Thanks for the well written piece and sharing your insights. What do you think would be the roadblock for China not being able to implement this plan?
I can think of a few points, and this actually could be the outline of a follow up article.
1/
First is ressources prices
If lithium stay this high or worse, the economics of EVs are terrible. So this is still an alternative, but a really bad one. And one that reduce the country's overall productivity semi-permanently.
Same apply to copper, and it's even worse as lithium could be replace by sodium battery or phosphate, etc... but copper is the vital point in electrification. In that respect,
Rio Tinto's Turquoise Hill in Mongolia is SOOO important. So ar relation to Argentina (soon in the BRICS) and Chile+Peru.
2/
The other could be sanctions hitting the renewable and nuclear industry.
I am sure some machinery for making solar panels need german parts, and would not be surprised some nuclear parts like controls, valves, turbines, etc... require Western tech and could be hurt the way the semiconductors have been.
I am actually surprised it did not happen yet, but my guess is that as Western government are unable to understand their OWN powergrid, blinding by what I called the ideology of the "Green Leap Backward", they are equally inept at realizing how they could slow down China's preparations on that front
3/
lack of time.
If Taiwan declare independence soon, there is not enough EV and not enough finish nuclear power plant to avoid an economic and potentially military disaster. In that respect, if we see the US pressing hard in the next 12 months, it will mean they have come to the (probably correct) conclusion a war is more winnable sonner than later.